My Ironclad Rule

"It's not how many pips you make, It's how much risk you take"

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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

USDCAD : Bullish Butterfly


This pattern I found in 15-min chart. It might not be so powerful but who cares. The market is now trading in the 1.27 XA price zone which is at 1.0134. Will this zone be a near term reversal? By the way I'm anticipating further drop until 1.0113 at 1.618 XA.

USDCHF : Bearish Gartley [UPDATED v3]


The bearish gartley pattern that I predicted early this week has failed when the price exceed the recent LO. My analysis in harmonic pattern still need a lot of practice. Perhaps I was just "making the market myself" which must not be in the mind of every trader.

GBPUSD : Bearish Crab


The strong bullish momentum on Cable has pushed GU further upward even beyond the 3.618 BC at 1.5110 and currently trading above the 1.618 XA at 1.5128 zone. Divergence is spotted for this pair at the moment. Now I'm looking for spinning top candlesticks formation to get more confirmation to sell this pair.

GBPJPY : Bearish Crab


Same goes to GJ plus the bull market siding on the Cable. This bearish crab pattern on 4-hour chart has extended beyond 3.618 BC and now heading towards 1.618 XA at 142.20. I might short this pair when it reaches in this price zone as well.

EURJPY : Bearish Crab


Strong bullish momentum on cross Yen pairs. In this pair I'm anticipating more upside move by looking at the 4-hour chart in which I see a bearish crab pattern. The D leg has extended beyond 3.618 BC at 125.65 and yet I'm looking for PRZ in the 1.27 XA or at 126.10 price zone to enter short for this pair.

AUDUSD : Bullish Butterfly


Found this pattern on 30-min timeframe. Will this pattern send AU to break the recent HI? Personally I'm anticipating more downside move until it reaches 0.9127 at 1.618 XA.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

USDCHF : Bearish Gartley [UPDATED v2]


This time the price was rejected at the retacement of 0.886 AB at 1.0595 or the last C leg that mentioned in previous post. MACD has just turned into the upside level and now confirming bullish market. Grab the chance people! It's 60 pips more or less for us.

USDCHF : Bearish Gartley [UPDATED]


USDCHF is also converging and still in the downside bias. Break of 0.886 AB at 1.0597 will confirm that the pattern has failed. MACD is still favoring the bearish trend. During the short rally yesterday, it was rejected two times by the 100 EMA.

GBPUSD : Bearish Bat [UPDATED v2]


The market is still trading above the minor support trendline and still haven't show any strong downward move. Perhaps this is a flag continuation pattern where the price converge before continuing its previous trend. I adjusted the angle of my support trendline but still don't have strong reason enough to sell right now. There is no confirmation yet. The MACD is still on the upside level. It is waiting for strong momentum to bring the price higher.

GBPUSD : Bearish Bat [UPDATED]


Break or bounce? I'm anticipating a break at the current support trendline as I'm waiting for confirmation on my MACD to turn into downside level. The flag pattern also looks convincing enough for breakout to the downside.

Monday, March 29, 2010

USDCHF : Bearish Gartley


In the near term, USDCHF is on the short rally until 1.0716 to complete its D for the gartley pattern. B is 0.618 XA at 1.0690 while C is 0.886 AB at 1.0597.

GBPUSD : Bearish Bat


Another pattern appears (bearish bat) where B is slightly above 0.382 XA at 1.4888, C is at 0.886 AB while D is supposed to be at 0.886 XA or 2.618 BC at 1.4977 but the projected level has been broken and now forming double top with slightly higher than X. In the strong bullish momentum with firm support trendline, I'm anticipating more upward move when the price bounced off the trendline in the near term.

GBPUSD : AB=CD [UPDATED v2]


The market opened this week with a gap that broke the resistance trendline. I assume that D is already completed in the last week LO at 1.4796. We can see that the market is now making a strong bullish movement during the london session while the support trendline is still holding firmly.

Friday, March 26, 2010

GBPUSD : AB=CD [UPDATED]


As mentioned earlier, GU is still in the making of AB = CD pattern or precisely the D leg at 2.24 projection of BC. We shall see further drop of this pair until 1.4724.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

GBPUSD : AB=CD



The AB=CD pattern appears after GU breaks the last stop at 1.4934. C is 0.382 of AB. The projection of D is at 2.24 of BC which is at 1.4724 but before that I must first consider the projection at 161.8 at 1.4829. Harmonically, I believe when the price reaches 161.8 projection, it will retrace a little bit to gain more bearish momentum to break the level and then straight to 224 projection.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

GBPUSD Confusing Trend - Trapped in Whipsaw [UPDATED v2]


Closed my buy trade at 1.4960 when GU 1-hour candlestick closed below the Fibonacci channel -161.8. This means that it has made a new lower LO. A strong move for downtrend. In the second attempt to retest the previous channel at 0 (the uptrend channel which it was holding it nicely until yesterday), it was rejected and the next candlestick closed in doji pattern which I took it as weak bull strength. There is no more reason to hold this position.

GBPUSD Confusing Trend - Trapped in Whipsaw [UPDATED]


As what I fear yesterday had happened. It failed to break the channel and bounced hard. Furthermore during London open today it breaks the support channel. I'm still anticipating a near term bounce on the support again. My long position is floating -80 pips already. I shall exit this trade if it confirms breaking the next support channel.

USDCAD : Bearish Gartley with AB=CD [UPDATED]


After about 2 hours later, the pattern 1.618 AB = CD formed out of the 3 predicted projection. I let this opportunity slip as I'm still studying to use this indicator in more efficient way. Regarding the trade, with stop loss of just 19 pips you can get around 50 pips. A very good ratio for the Risk/Reward.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

GBPUSD Confusing Trend - Trapped in Whipsaw


I got confused with my own trading system. I created it myself yet why I am the one who get confused? This is probably my 10th trade using this setup. This one is very interesting that I have ever found. Due to whipsaw market, I was trapped in making early entry at 23.6 fibonacci retracement level. I am trading 8 pairs at the time and among them 2 pairs showed the sign of reversal on time frame 1 hour. They are GBPUSD & EURUSD. For the time being, what I am most afraid is that the bounce off at the fibonacci channel and making it more valid for downtrend.

USDCAD : Bearish Gartley with AB=CD


This entry setup is very assuring as it overlaps the harmonic pattern between Gartley and AB=CD pattern. The PRZ or Potential reversal zone is from 1.0208 and 1.0227. The stop loss is only 19 pips!